Bo Bichette's total bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity, with just 9 overs in 22 games (40.9% rate). His 1.41 average falls 0.36 bases short of the typical 1.77 line, creating consistent value on the under with a 12.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Bichette underperforming total bases expectations in Toronto. His 1.41 home average against a 1.77 line represents a significant 20% gap that suggests either persistent booking inefficiency or genuine home field disadvantage. The 60% under rate over 22 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the positive 12.8% under ROI demonstrates real betting value. Most telling is the current six-game under streak, matching his longest of the sample period, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern. The -21.9% over ROI serves as a stark warning against contrarian thinking. What makes this trend particularly bankable is its consistency—Bichette isn't alternating hot and cold stretches that would suggest imminent regression. Instead, he's delivering steady, below-expectation performance that oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted for. The lack of available split data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the core numbers are robust enough to build conviction. Home ballpark factors, whether psychological pressure or Rogers Centre dimensions, appear to genuinely suppress his extra-base production compared to books' pricing models.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.41 home average versus 1.77 typical line creates consistent value, supported by 60% under rate and positive ROI. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 or higher for maximum edge. Primary risk is sample size regression, but the six-game under streak suggests the pattern remains intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bo Bichette's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bo Bichette has gone under his total bases prop in 13 of 22 home games (59.1% under rate) with a 9-13-0 record. His 1.41 home average falls well short of the typical 1.77 line, creating a -0.36 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bo Bichette Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Bo Bichette's total bases props at home games. The data strongly supports under bets with a 60% hit rate, positive 12.8% ROI, and his average sitting 0.36 bases below typical lines.
What's Bo Bichette's average Total Bases home games?
Bo Bichette averages 1.41 total bases in home games compared to the typical 1.77 line. This -0.36 differential represents a 20% gap, indicating consistent underperformance relative to oddsmaker expectations at Rogers Centre.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bo Bichette total bases unders when the line is set at 1.5 or higher in home games. The current six-game under streak and 60% overall under rate suggest optimal conditions remain present.