Blaze Alexander's Total Bases prop at home presents a historically dominant under trend, hitting just 15.4% overs across 13 games with an 11-game under streak. His 0.46 average sits 0.7 bases below typical lines, generating +61.5% under ROI while overs hemorrhage -70.6%.
Expert Analysis
Alexander's home struggles reflect a rookie shortstop still adjusting to major league pitching in Arizona's challenging hitting environment. His 0.46 total bases average suggests he's managing just one single every other game at Chase Field, well below the 1.19 lines bookmakers typically set. The 11-game under streak isn't fluky variance—it represents systematic underperformance likely tied to pressing at home, facing tougher National League West pitching staffs, and the psychological weight of performing in front of home crowds. Chase Field's dimensions and conditions may also suppress his modest power profile. While rookie regression toward league norms is inevitable long-term, Alexander's current skill set and approach suggest continued struggles generating multiple-base hits. The sample size of 13 games provides meaningful data for a player with limited major league exposure, and the consistency of results indicates this isn't random distribution. However, eventual positive regression and potential lineup changes could shift this dynamic, particularly if Alexander finds his rhythm or faces weaker pitching matchups.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Alexander's home total bases props offer exceptional value with an 11-game under streak and massive -0.7 differential from typical lines. Target this trend when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching staffs. The primary risk is eventual positive regression, but his current approach and home environment suggest continued struggles generating extra-base production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blaze Alexander's Total Bases prop record home games?
Alexander is 2-11-0 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 15.4% with an average of 0.46 total bases. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends available, with unders cashing at an 84.6% rate across his 13-game home sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blaze Alexander Total Bases home games?
Bet UNDER on Alexander's Total Bases props at home. The 11-game under streak and -0.7 differential from lines create exceptional value. Target lines of 1.0 or higher for maximum edge, particularly when he faces quality starting pitching.
What's Blaze Alexander's average Total Bases home games?
Alexander averages 0.46 total bases in home games compared to typical 1.19 lines, creating a massive -0.7 differential. This means he's falling short of bookmaker expectations by nearly three-quarters of a base per game, indicating significant line value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alexander's Total Bases unders at home when lines are 1.0 or higher against quality pitching staffs. Avoid when he faces struggling starters or in favorable hitting conditions. The trend is strongest in his current rookie adjustment phase.