Blaze Alexander's home run prop presents one of the most extreme under opportunities in MLB, hitting just 1-12-0 over/under at home with a devastating -85.3% over ROI. The rookie shortstop averages 0.08 home runs per home game against typical 0.58 lines. This is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Alexander's home run futility at Chase Field stems from his fundamental profile as a contact-oriented infielder rather than a power threat. The 0.08 home run average across 13 home games represents an extreme deviation from even conservative power expectations, suggesting the market consistently overvalues his long ball potential. His current 11-game under streak isn't an aberration—it's the natural result of a player whose skill set doesn't translate to consistent power production. The -0.5 differential between his actual production and typical lines indicates books are pricing him as if he possesses legitimate home run upside, when his batted ball profile and approach suggest otherwise. Chase Field's dimensions favor power hitters, yet Alexander has managed just one home run across nearly three months of home action. The 7.7% over rate across this sample size indicates systematic market mispricing rather than temporary cold streak. While regression toward league averages is always possible, Alexander's plate approach and batted ball metrics suggest his power ceiling remains severely limited, particularly in clutch situations where books often inflate props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The market fundamentally misunderstands Alexander's power profile, creating systematic value on unders. The 76.2% under ROI combined with his 0.08 average validates this approach. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5, especially during day games when his contact rate typically increases. Primary risk is a fluky opposite-field homer, but his approach makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Blaze Alexander props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blaze Alexander's Home Runs prop record home games?
Alexander is 1-12-0 over/under on home run props at home, hitting just 7.7% of overs with a brutal -85.3% ROI for over bettors across 13 games from April through June 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blaze Alexander Home Runs home games?
Bet under with high confidence. Alexander's 0.08 home run average and 11-game under streak create systematic value, with under bets producing a 76.2% ROI in this sample.
What's Blaze Alexander's average Home Runs home games?
Alexander averages 0.08 home runs per home game, dramatically below typical 0.58 lines. This -0.5 differential represents one of the largest gaps between production and market expectations in MLB.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alexander home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, particularly during day games when his contact approach is most pronounced. Avoid when facing extreme flyball pitchers.