Blaze Alexander has been an under machine over his last 10 games, posting a brutal 1-9-0 record against his hits line with just a 10.0% over rate. His 0.4 average sits a full hit below the typical 1.4 line, creating a massive -80.9% ROI for over bettors while rewarding under backers with +71.8% returns.
Expert Analysis
Alexander's hitting struggles represent more than a cold streak—they reveal fundamental offensive limitations that books have been slow to adjust for. His 0.4 hits per game average suggests he's managing just one hit every 2.5 games, a pace that makes even conservative 1+ hit lines dangerous territory. The 90% under rate isn't just impressive; it's historically dominant for a player seeing regular action. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—Alexander has strung together a six-game under streak and currently sits on three straight unders, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustained inability to reach modest hit totals. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest is just one game) suggests no hidden upside waiting to emerge. Most concerning for over bettors is that this sample spans nearly a full month of action, giving us confidence this reflects Alexander's true talent level rather than temporary struggles. Books often lag in adjusting lines for struggling hitters, especially those without extensive track records, creating sustained value on the under side. The -1.0 differential between his average and typical lines indicates oddsmakers are still pricing him as a more productive hitter than he's proven to be.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Alexander's 90% under rate over 10 games creates clear value, especially when books continue setting lines around 1.4 hits. The ideal spot is when his line sits at 1.5 or higher, though even 1+ hit props warrant consideration given his one-hit-every-2.5-games pace. Main risk is regression to league-average hitting, but his month-long sample suggests this reflects true skill level rather than temporary slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blaze Alexander's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Alexander went 1-9-0 on his hits over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 10.0% of the time. He averaged only 0.4 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.4, creating an 80.9% loss for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blaze Alexander Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Alexander's hits props with medium confidence. His 90% under rate and 0.4 average create clear value, especially when lines are set at 1.5+ hits. The month-long sample suggests sustained offensive struggles rather than temporary variance.
What's Blaze Alexander's average Hits last 10 games?
Alexander averaged just 0.4 hits over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.4 hits. This massive -1.0 differential shows books are pricing him as a more productive hitter than he's actually been performing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alexander under bets when his hits line is set at 1.5 or higher for maximum value. Even 1+ hit props merit consideration given his pace of one hit every 2.5 games over this sustained sample period.