Blaze Alexander's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity in away games, hitting just 38.5% overs across 13 contests while averaging 0.62 hits against a 1.19 line. The massive -0.6 differential suggests consistent line inflation, making UNDER the clear lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Alexander's away struggles reveal a pattern of consistent underperformance that screams value on the under side. Averaging 0.62 hits while facing lines around 1.19 creates a substantial 0.6-hit cushion that has translated to profitable under betting at +17.5% ROI. This isn't a small sample fluke—13 games provides meaningful data, and the 5-8-0 over/under split shows clear directional bias. The concerning element is Alexander's apparent road difficulties, which could stem from unfamiliar environments, different batting backgrounds, or simple offensive struggles away from home. His longest under streak of 5 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while the modest 3-game over streak suggests any hot stretches are brief. The -26.6% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Alexander's road limitations. Most telling is the consistency—this isn't wild variance but a steady pattern of falling short of inflated expectations. Without platoon concerns or obvious regression catalysts, this trend appears sustainable through his current role.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Alexander's road hit props offer legitimate value with a 0.6-hit average cushion and proven profitability. The 38.5% over rate across 13 games isn't random—it reflects genuine away struggles that create recurring betting opportunities. Target this when lines sit at 1.0+ hits, as the market consistently overestimates his road offensive output. Main risk is small sample variance, but the magnitude of underperformance suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blaze Alexander's Hits prop record away games?
Alexander's hits prop record in away games stands at 5-8-0 over/under across 13 contests, hitting just 38.5% overs. This translates to under bets winning at a 61.5% clip, demonstrating consistent value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blaze Alexander Hits away games?
Bet UNDER on Alexander's hits props in away games. The 0.6-hit differential between his 0.62 average and typical 1.19 lines creates sustainable value, backed by +17.5% under ROI and 61.5% win rate.
What's Blaze Alexander's average Hits away games?
Alexander averages 0.62 hits in away games compared to the typical 1.19 line, creating a massive -0.6 differential. This substantial gap between performance and market expectations drives consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alexander's hits unders when lines are 1.0+ hits in away games. The larger the line relative to his 0.62 average, the greater the value. Avoid when he's facing particularly weak pitching or in favorable hitting environments.