Blake Perkins presents one of the season's most reliable under opportunities in total bases props at home, posting a dismal 3-17 record (15.0% overs) with an average of just 0.45 total bases against a 2.0 line. The 15-game under streak and -1.6 differential create compelling value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's home total bases struggles stem from a perfect storm of offensive limitations and venue-specific challenges. The 0.45 average against a 2.0 line represents a massive 77.5% shortfall, indicating the market consistently overvalues his home production. This isn't random variance—Perkins's contact-first approach and limited power translate poorly to American Family Field's dimensions, where his gap-to-gap style fails to generate extra-base opportunities. The 15-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in this weakness, suggesting a fundamental skill-park mismatch rather than temporary struggles. His plate approach emphasizes contact over power, making him particularly vulnerable to under results when books set lines expecting typical major league production. The -71.4% ROI on overs versus +62.3% on unders quantifies this edge perfectly. Most concerning for over backers is the complete absence of power spikes—his longest over streak reached just two games, while the current 15-game under run shows no signs of regression. The sample size of 20 games provides sufficient data to identify this as a legitimate trend rather than small-sample noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Blake Perkins's home total bases props offer consistent value on the under side, supported by a 0.45 average that falls 77.5% short of the typical 2.0 line. Target this spot when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as his contact-heavy approach and limited power create a natural ceiling. The primary risk involves potential lineup changes or increased playing time that could boost his opportunities, but his skill set suggests the fundamental weakness persists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Total Bases prop record home games?
Blake Perkins has gone 3-17 on total bases overs in home games, hitting just 15.0% of his overs with an average of 0.45 total bases. This represents one of the season's most lopsided prop records.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins total bases props at home. His 0.45 average falls 77.5% short of typical 2.0 lines, creating consistent value with a 15-game under streak and +62.3% ROI.
What's Blake Perkins's average Total Bases home games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.45 total bases in home games compared to the standard 2.0 line, creating a massive -1.6 differential. This 77.5% shortfall represents exceptional under value in the prop market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Blake Perkins total bases unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher in home games. His contact-heavy approach and 15-game under streak make any elevated line profitable betting territory.