Blake Perkins has been an absolute under machine in total bases props, going 10-27-0 (27.0% overs) with a devastating -0.9 differential between his 0.78 average and the typical 1.66 line. This represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in baseball props. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins represents a textbook case of market inefficiency, where books consistently overvalue a player's offensive output. His 0.78 total bases average against a 1.66 line creates nearly a full base of value on every under bet, translating to exceptional +39.3% ROI for under bettors. The 27% over rate across 37 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic pattern reflecting Perkins' role as a defense-first center fielder who prioritizes contact over power. His current five-game under streak, following a season-long nine-game under streak, demonstrates the persistence of his offensive limitations. The -48.4% ROI on overs shows how punishing this prop has been for those betting against the trend. What makes this particularly compelling is the lack of meaningful regression despite the extended sample size. Perkins' profile as a utility outfielder with minimal power upside suggests this isn't a temporary slump but rather his true offensive ceiling. The consistency of this underperformance across different matchups and situations indicates that books haven't properly adjusted their lines to reflect his actual production level, creating sustained value for sharp under bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Perkins' 27% over rate and -0.9 differential represent exceptional value that hasn't corrected despite a robust 37-game sample. The ideal conditions are simply any time this prop is available, as his offensive profile shows no signs of meaningful improvement. The main risk is a random hot streak, but his nine-game under streak demonstrates how rare his power surges are.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Total Bases prop record all games?
Blake Perkins has gone 10-27-0 on total bases props across all games, hitting the over just 27.0% of the time. His 0.78 average falls nearly a full base short of the typical 1.66 line, creating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins total bases props with high confidence. His 73% under rate and +39.3% ROI on unders, combined with a -0.9 differential from the line, represents one of the strongest fade opportunities in baseball props.
What's Blake Perkins's average Total Bases all games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.78 total bases per game across all situations, nearly a full base below the typical 1.66 line. This -0.9 differential has created consistent value, with unders cashing at a 73% rate over 37 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Any time Blake Perkins total bases props are available represents good betting value. His defensive profile and consistent underperformance across all situations means there's no need to wait for specific matchups—the under has been profitable regardless of opponent.