Blake Perkins presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting the under in 17 of 20 home games (85% hit rate) with a devastating -0.9 differential versus the line. Currently riding a 15-game under streak at home, this represents a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's home hitting struggles create a textbook systematic edge that bettors can exploit with confidence. Averaging just 0.25 hits per home game against a 1.15 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. The 15-game under streak isn't random variance—it's indicative of a player whose home environment negatively impacts his offensive production. This could stem from pressing in front of home crowds, different sight lines at American Family Field, or mechanical adjustments that haven't translated to home success. The consistency is remarkable: Perkins has managed multiple hits in just 3 of 20 home contests, meaning he's essentially a singles-or-nothing proposition at home. The -71.4% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this line consistently overvalues his home offensive output. What makes this trend particularly bankable is the sample size legitimacy and the lack of recent improvement. Perkins hasn't shown signs of breaking through this home hitting malaise, and his role as a defensive-minded center fielder suggests the Brewers aren't relying on his bat for production. The market appears slow to adjust to his home/road splits, creating recurring value on the under.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Blake Perkins's home hitting props offer elite systematic value with an 85% under hit rate and massive -0.9 line differential. The 15-game under streak reflects genuine skill-based struggles rather than temporary slump. Target this under in any home game, especially when the line sits at 1.0 or higher. Primary risk is sample size regression, but the consistency suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Hits prop record home games?
Blake Perkins has gone under his Hits prop in 17 of 20 home games (85% rate) with a 3-17-0 record. He's averaging just 0.25 hits per home game against typical lines around 1.15, creating a massive -0.9 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Hits home games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins's Hits props at home games with high confidence. The 85% under hit rate, 15-game under streak, and -0.9 line differential create exceptional systematic value. This represents one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
What's Blake Perkins's average Hits home games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.25 hits per home game compared to the typical 1.15 line, creating a massive -0.9 differential. This means he's falling nearly a full hit short of expectations in home games, making unders extremely valuable.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Blake Perkins Hits unders in any Milwaukee home game, especially when lines are 1.0 or higher. The trend shows no signs of regression after 20 games, and his defensive-focused role suggests consistent offensive limitations at home.