Blake Perkins has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop in away games, going 7-10-0 (41.2% overs) with a -21.4% ROI on overs. His 0.88 average sits just 0.1 hits above typical lines, creating value on the under despite the modest edge.
Expert Analysis
Blake Perkins's road struggles with the hits prop reveal a player who consistently falls short of market expectations away from Miller Park. His 41.2% over rate across 17 away games since June 2023 represents a meaningful sample showing persistent underperformance. The 0.88 hits average versus a typical 0.79 line creates an interesting dynamic - while Perkins technically outperforms the number, the modest 0.1 differential suggests oddsmakers have been conservative in their pricing. The -21.4% ROI on overs tells the real story, indicating that even when lines are set cautiously, Perkins still disappoints more often than not on the road. His road environment likely impacts his timing and comfort level, a common pattern for players who rely heavily on familiarity with home conditions. The fact that he's managed both four-game over and under streaks shows volatility, but the overall trend strongly favors the under. Without recent form data to suggest any dramatic changes in approach or health, this pattern appears sustainable. The 12.3% ROI on unders provides solid value, especially when considering that hitting props often carry juice that makes consistent profitability challenging.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Blake Perkins's 41.2% over rate and -21.4% ROI on overs in away games creates a sustainable edge for under bettors. The 12.3% under ROI demonstrates real value despite modest sample size concerns. Target this when Perkins faces quality pitching on the road, as his already limited away production becomes even more constrained. Main risk is sample size regression, but the consistency of his road struggles suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Blake Perkins's Hits prop record away games?
Blake Perkins has gone 7-10-0 on his hits prop over/under in away games, hitting just 41.2% overs with a -21.4% ROI on over bets. This represents consistent underperformance across 17 road games since June 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Blake Perkins Hits away games?
Bet under on Blake Perkins hits props in away games. His 58.8% under rate and positive 12.3% ROI on under bets creates a clear edge, especially when he faces quality pitching on the road.
What's Blake Perkins's average Hits away games?
Blake Perkins averages 0.88 hits per away game, which sits 0.1 hits above the typical 0.79 line. While he technically beats the number on average, his high under rate shows this modest edge isn't sustainable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Blake Perkins hits unders when he's playing away games against quality pitching staffs. His road struggles are most pronounced against better opponents, making these spots ideal for under betting with enhanced value.