Austin Wells has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, posting a brutal 2-8-0 over record with just 0.3 homers per game against 0.6 lines. The under has delivered a stellar 52.7% ROI while overs have torched bankrolls at -61.8%. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Austin Wells's power drought represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props right now. Averaging just 0.3 home runs per game against consistent 0.6 lines, Wells is falling short by half a homer per contest. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile during this stretch. The Yankees catcher has managed just three total home runs across these 10 games, with eight complete blanks on the power front. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Wells's current power output. The four-game under streak highlights how thoroughly his bat has cooled off. Wells's swing-and-miss tendencies have increased during this period, and his launch angle data suggests he's been hitting more ground balls than the elevated contact needed for home runs. The sample size is meaningful enough to indicate this isn't just bad luck—Wells appears to be in a legitimate power slump that oddsmakers are slow to recognize. His plate discipline metrics show he's pressing at times, leading to weaker contact and fewer mistake pitches to drive.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wells's power production has fallen off a cliff, averaging half the production that lines suggest. The 80% under rate with strong ROI indicates oddsmakers haven't caught up to his current form. Target this prop when lines remain at 0.5+ home runs, especially in day games where his splits historically weaken. The main risk is regression to his season norms, but the trend shows no signs of breaking.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Wells's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Austin Wells has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 0.3 homers per game against 0.6 lines. That's an 80% under rate with unders returning 52.7% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Wells Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Austin Wells home runs. He's averaging half the production that lines suggest, with an 80% under rate and strong ROI. This power drought shows no signs of ending soon.
What's Austin Wells's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Wells is averaging 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.3 short of typical 0.6 lines. He's managed just three total homers across this entire stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wells home run unders when lines stay at 0.5+ and in day games where his power traditionally dips. Avoid when facing weak pitching or in hitter-friendly ballparks where regression risk increases.