Austin Wells has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop, going 4-6 over/under with just a 40% over rate in his last 10 games. The Yankees catcher is averaging 1.0 hits against a 1.8 line, creating a significant -0.8 differential that strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Austin Wells's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample represent a clear pattern of underperformance that bettors can exploit. Averaging just 1.0 hits per game against a 1.8 line creates a massive 0.8-hit gap that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent form or there are underlying factors suppressing his offensive output. The 40% over rate combined with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a player consistently failing to meet expectations. Wells's current six-game under streak indicates momentum firmly on the under's side, though regression risk exists given the small sample size. The +14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates clear profitability for sharp bettors willing to fade Wells's inflated lines. As a catcher, Wells faces the additional challenge of managing a demanding defensive workload that can impact offensive performance, particularly during stretches of frequent starts. The lack of available splits data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the raw numbers paint a picture of a player whose recent hitting has fallen well short of market expectations, creating consistent value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wells's 1.0 hits per game average against a 1.8 line represents clear value, supported by his active six-game under streak and profitable +14.6% under ROI. The ideal spot is when the line remains at 1.5 or higher, allowing maximum cushion. Primary risk is regression to career norms in a small sample, but the current trend strongly favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Wells's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Austin Wells has gone 4-6 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Wells Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Austin Wells hits props. His 1.0 average against a 1.8 line creates significant value, backed by a profitable +14.6% under ROI and an active six-game under streak.
What's Austin Wells's average Hits last 10 games?
Austin Wells is averaging 1.0 hits per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.8 hits short of the typical 1.8 line. This massive differential strongly favors under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Wells under bets when the line is 1.5 or higher, maximizing your cushion. Avoid during potential bounce-back spots after extended cold streaks when regression becomes more likely.