Austin Riley's total bases prop shows clear value on the under, hitting just 46.2% of overs across 26 games with a negative 0.1 differential to his 2.31 average line. The under delivers positive 2.8% ROI while overs hemorrhage -11.9%. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Austin Riley's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and his 2024 production. Averaging 2.19 total bases against a 2.31 line reveals oddsmakers are pricing in the Riley of old rather than his current form. The 46.2% over rate isn't just mediocre—it's systematically profitable for under bettors at +2.8% ROI. Riley's power metrics suggest he's not making the same quality contact that generated his previous seasons' production. The current two-game under streak aligns with a longer pattern of failing to reach inflated expectations. Most telling is the -11.9% ROI on overs, indicating sharp money has already identified this edge. Riley's total bases props appear anchored to reputation rather than current performance, creating a sustainable betting opportunity. The three-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when a player isn't meeting market projections. Without significant changes to Riley's approach or the line adjustment, this trend projects to continue favoring under bettors who recognize the gap between perception and reality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Riley's 2.19 average significantly trails his 2.31 line, creating a measurable edge that's produced positive returns for under bettors. The ideal spot is when the line remains at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and performance. Main risk is Riley breaking out of his current form, but the data suggests oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his 2024 reality.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Riley's Total Bases prop record all games?
Austin Riley has gone over his total bases prop in 12 of 26 games (46.2%) from April through August 2024. He's hit 14 unders with no pushes, creating a clear pattern of underperformance relative to market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Riley Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Austin Riley's total bases props. His 2.19 average falls short of typical 2.31 lines, and under bets have generated positive 2.8% ROI while overs lose money at -11.9%.
What's Austin Riley's average Total Bases all games?
Austin Riley averages 2.19 total bases per game in 2024, which runs 0.1 below his typical 2.31 prop line. This consistent shortfall creates a measurable edge for under bettors across his 26-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Riley total bases unders when the line is 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 2.19 average and market expectations. Avoid after multi-hit games when the line might temporarily adjust downward.