Austin Hedges has been a total bases disaster, going under in 9 of his last 10 games with just a 10.0% over rate. Averaging only 0.8 total bases against a 2.6 line creates a massive -1.8 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Austin Hedges represents everything wrong with backup catcher offensive production compressed into one devastating trend. His 0.8 total bases average against a 2.6 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between oddsmakers' expectations and reality. This isn't variance—it's structural weakness. Hedges entered 2024 as a defense-first catcher whose offensive limitations have been magnified by age and reduced playing time. The 9-game under streak suggests his bat has completely abandoned him during this sample, likely due to inconsistent at-bats and the natural decline curve for aging catchers. What makes this trend particularly reliable is that backup catchers like Hedges rarely experience sudden offensive surges. Their limited plate appearances and defensive-focused role create little opportunity for meaningful improvement. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story—betting Hedges to exceed modest total base expectations has been financial suicide. While regression always looms, the underlying factors driving this underperformance appear sustainable. Hedges' profile suggests a player whose offensive ceiling remains severely capped, making the under the logical side until proven otherwise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hedges' systematic underperformance against a reasonable 2.6 line reflects genuine offensive limitations rather than bad luck. The 9-game under streak aligns with his profile as a defense-first veteran whose bat offers minimal upside. Risk comes from potential lineup changes or a rare multi-hit game, but his track record suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Hedges's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Hedges went 1-9-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's currently riding a 9-game under streak with only one over during this brutal stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Hedges Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Hedges' total bases. His 0.8 average against typical 2.6 lines creates a massive edge, supported by a 9-game under streak and +71.8% under ROI that validates the systematic advantage.
What's Austin Hedges's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Hedges averaged just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.6 line, creating a devastating -1.8 differential that highlights his complete offensive struggles during this period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hedges total bases unders when he's in backup role with limited at-bats. His defense-first profile and age-related decline make him ideal for under bets against modest lines throughout the season.