Austin Hedges presents one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 21.4% overs with a brutal 0.79 average against a 2.0 total bases line. Currently riding a nine-game under streak, this defensive specialist's offensive limitations create consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of offensive futility that creates genuine betting value. Hedges averages just 0.79 total bases per game against a 2.0 line, creating a massive -1.2 differential that reflects his role as a defense-first catcher with minimal offensive upside. The 21.4% over rate isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by his .154 batting average and .179 slugging percentage over this sample. His current nine-game under streak demonstrates the consistency of this trend, with his longest over streak reaching just one game. The -59.1% ROI on overs versus +50.0% on unders quantifies the edge clearly. Hedges simply lacks the bat speed and power to consistently reach two total bases, whether through doubles or multiple singles. His defensive value keeps him in lineups despite offensive struggles, creating a player whose prop lines consistently overestimate his hitting ability. The lack of meaningful splits suggests this isn't situational—Hedges struggles uniformly regardless of matchup factors. Regression seems unlikely given his established offensive profile and age.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hedges represents textbook negative regression betting—a player whose prop consistently overestimates his offensive capabilities. The nine-game under streak and 0.79 average create immediate value, while his defensive-specialist profile suggests sustainability. Target this under in any game where Hedges starts, particularly when the line stays at 2.0. The primary risk is reduced playing time, but when he's in the lineup, this under offers exceptional value based on his established offensive limitations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Hedges's Total Bases prop record all games?
Austin Hedges has gone 3-11 on total bases overs this season, hitting just 21.4% of his over bets. He's averaging 0.79 total bases per game against a typical 2.0 line, creating a significant 1.2-base deficit per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Hedges Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Austin Hedges total bases props with high confidence. His 0.79 average against a 2.0 line, combined with a nine-game under streak and 50% ROI on unders, creates exceptional value on the under side.
What's Austin Hedges's average Total Bases all games?
Austin Hedges averages 0.79 total bases per game, well below the standard 2.0 prop line. This 1.2-base deficit represents one of the largest gaps between actual performance and betting expectations among regular players this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Hedges total bases unders whenever he's starting, regardless of matchup. His defensive role ensures consistent playing time while his offensive limitations remain constant. The under offers value in any game situation given his established profile.