Austin Hedges has gone under his home run prop in 9 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 10.0% over rate with -80.9% ROI on overs. The veteran catcher is averaging just 0.1 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This represents a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Austin Hedges's home run drought reflects the harsh reality of a defensively-minded catcher in the twilight of his career. At 32 years old, Hedges has never been a power threat, and his current 0.1 home run average over this 10-game sample represents an extreme low even by his modest standards. The -0.4 differential between his production and the typical 0.5 line suggests oddsmakers are still pricing in occasional power that simply isn't materializing. Catchers face unique physical demands that can sap power production, and Hedges's primary value lies in his defensive skills and game-calling ability rather than offensive contribution. The 9-game under streak isn't just variance—it's a reflection of his current role and capabilities. While regression toward his career norms might eventually occur, the sample size and consistency of this trend suggests the market has been slow to adjust to his diminished power output. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, though bettors should monitor for any signs of increased playing time or favorable matchups that might break this pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hedges's 0.1 home run average against the 0.5 line creates a substantial edge, supported by nine consecutive unders and exceptional under ROI of 71.8%. The trend reflects his defensive-first role and age-related power decline rather than temporary variance. Primary risk is eventual regression to career norms or a favorable matchup breaking the streak, but the consistency suggests continued value on unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Hedges's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Austin Hedges has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his home run props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once for a 10.0% success rate. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among active players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Hedges Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Austin Hedges home run props. His 0.1 average against a 0.5 line, combined with 9 straight unders and 71.8% under ROI, creates a clear edge that reflects his diminished power role.
What's Austin Hedges's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Austin Hedges is averaging 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential that strongly favors under bets on his power production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Hedges home run unders consistently given his defensive role and age-related power decline. The trend appears sustainable rather than temporary variance, making most game situations favorable for under bets.