Anthony Santander's Total Bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, going under in 38 of 58 games (65.5% hit rate) with a -0.6 differential from the typical line. The 25.1% ROI on unders combined with his current streak suggests consistent value betting the under.
Expert Analysis
Santander's home Total Bases struggles stem from Camden Yards' dimensions and his approach against familiar American League East pitching. The 1.69 average against a 2.26 line reveals books consistently overvaluing his power output at home. This isn't random variance—the 65.5% under rate across 58 games represents a meaningful sample showing persistent underperformance. The -34.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how costly backing his home power has been, while under bettors have profited consistently. His current under streak of 1 follows a season-long pattern where he's managed just 20 overs in 58 attempts. The differential suggests oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted for his home park factors or his tendency to see better scouting from division rivals. Camden Yards plays more neutral than hitter-friendly for right-handed power, and Santander's swing plane doesn't optimize for the park's dimensions. The longest under streak of 9 games shows how extended these cold stretches can become, while his longest over streak maxed at just 3 games, indicating limited hot streaks. This pattern suggests a fundamental mismatch between his skill set and home conditions rather than temporary struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Santander's 65.5% under rate at home backed by a significant -0.6 line differential creates consistent value. The 25.1% ROI on unders demonstrates profitable betting opportunities, especially when lines remain inflated around 2.26. Target games against quality pitching or when books haven't adjusted downward, but avoid during hot weather stretches when Camden Yards plays bigger.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Anthony Santander props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Santander's Total Bases prop record home games?
Santander has gone under his Total Bases prop in 38 of 58 home games (65.5%), producing a 20-38-0 over/under record. This represents strong under performance with a -34.2% ROI for over bettors and +25.1% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Santander Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Santander's Total Bases at home. His 65.5% under rate and 25.1% ROI for under bettors across 58 games shows clear value. The -0.6 differential from his 1.69 average suggests books consistently overprice his home power.
What's Anthony Santander's average Total Bases home games?
Santander averages 1.69 Total Bases in home games, significantly below the typical 2.26 line. This -0.6 differential represents the core value in betting unders, as books haven't adequately adjusted for his home park struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Santander Total Bases unders at home when facing quality pitching or when books maintain inflated lines around 2.26. Avoid during hot weather stretches when Camden Yards dimensions favor hitters, but his 9-game under streak shows extended value periods.