Anthony Rendon's home run props present an extraordinary under opportunity with a staggering 1-40-0 record and 2.4% over rate. The third baseman averages just 0.02 home runs per game against a 0.52 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential. This is a premium fade candidate with elite under value.
Expert Analysis
Rendon's home run drought represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball, with the veteran third baseman managing just one home run across 41 tracked games. The 0.02 average against a 0.52 line reveals books haven't adjusted to his complete power outage, likely clinging to outdated reputation from his Washington days. At 34, Rendon's bat speed has visibly declined, coinciding with persistent injury issues that have sapped his ability to turn on fastballs. His swing mechanics show clear deterioration, with launch angle data suggesting he's hitting more ground balls and weak contact. The Angels' offensive struggles compound this issue, as Rendon often faces defensive shifts and gets fewer quality pitches to hit. The 35-game under streak isn't fluky variance—it's systematic decline. Books consistently set his line around 0.5, creating massive value on the under when his true talent level sits closer to 0.05 home runs per game. Age-related decline in power is notoriously persistent, and Rendon shows no signs of mechanical adjustments that might reverse this trend. The combination of physical limitations, poor plate discipline, and inflated lines creates a sustainable edge that should persist throughout his remaining contract years.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Rendon's complete power evaporation isn't temporary—it's the new reality for an aging player whose bat speed and mechanics have fundamentally deteriorated. The 86.2% under ROI reflects genuine market inefficiency, as books refuse to properly adjust his lines downward. Target this prop in any situation where the line sits at 0.5 or higher, with particular value when he faces quality pitching that further suppresses his minimal power potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Rendon's Home Runs prop record all games?
Rendon's home run prop record stands at 1-40-0 over/under across 41 games, producing just a 2.4% over rate. He's averaging 0.02 home runs per game against a typical 0.52 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Rendon Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Rendon's power has completely vanished due to age and injury, yet books haven't properly adjusted his lines. The 86.2% under ROI and 35-game streak reflect genuine market inefficiency, not variance.
What's Anthony Rendon's average Home Runs all games?
Rendon averages just 0.02 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.52 line set by sportsbooks. This creates a staggering -0.5 differential, meaning he's performing 25 times worse than the betting market expects on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rendon home run unders whenever the line is 0.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching. His power decline is systematic rather than situational, making this prop consistently valuable regardless of matchup or venue conditions.