Anthony Rendon's hits prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, with just 33.3% overs across 18 games and an average of 0.56 hits versus a typical 0.78 line. The veteran third baseman is mired in an 11-game under streak at Angel Stadium, making the under a strong play.
Expert Analysis
Anthony Rendon's home hitting struggles reflect a perfect storm of declining skills and situational factors. At 34, Rendon has lost the consistent contact ability that once made him elite, managing just 0.56 hits per home game against lines typically set around 0.78. This -0.22 differential isn't random variance—it represents a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The 11-game under streak at Angel Stadium suggests environmental factors beyond normal aging. Home cooking isn't helping Rendon, who appears more comfortable in neutral settings than dealing with familiar surroundings and heightened expectations. His 27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished home production. The sample size of 18 games provides statistical significance while the consistency of results—just six overs in nearly two dozen opportunities—indicates this isn't a temporary slump but a measurable trend. Rendon's plate discipline remains intact, but his bat speed and timing have deteriorated specifically in home environments, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Rendon's 0.56 hits per home game versus 0.78 lines creates clear value, supported by an active 11-game under streak and 27.3% ROI. The trend shows no signs of regression given his age-related decline and specific home struggles. Target games with higher lines (0.5+) for maximum edge, but avoid if he's facing particularly weak pitching that might inflate his contact rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Rendon's Hits prop record home games?
Anthony Rendon has gone over his hits prop in just 6 of 18 home games (33.3% rate), averaging 0.56 hits per game. He's currently on an 11-game under streak at Angel Stadium, with unders producing a 27.3% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Rendon Hits home games?
Bet under on Anthony Rendon's hits props at home games. His 0.56 average significantly trails typical lines around 0.78, and he's failed to hit the over in 11 straight home appearances, creating clear value for under bettors.
What's Anthony Rendon's average Hits home games?
Anthony Rendon averages 0.56 hits per home game, well below the typical 0.78 line set by sportsbooks. This -0.22 differential represents significant value, as he's consistently underperforming expectations in his home ballpark over an 18-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anthony Rendon hits unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher at Angel Stadium. His home struggles are most pronounced against average pitching, while elite starters might push lines lower and reduce value despite his consistent underperformance.