Angel Martínez has been an under goldmine with a 1-9-0 record hitting just 10.0% overs across his last 10 games. Averaging only 0.9 total bases against a 3.0 line creates a massive -2.1 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear lean under situation with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Martínez's total bases collapse represents one of the most extreme underperformances in recent memory, with his 0.9 average sitting 70% below the standard 3.0 line. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in offensive production that suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a prolonged slump that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The six-game under streak indicates this isn't random regression but a sustained pattern of weak contact and limited extra-base power. Most telling is that Martínez has managed just one over in 10 attempts, suggesting his ceiling has dropped significantly from what books initially projected. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as the line hasn't moved enough to reflect his actual output. While extreme trends eventually correct, the severity of this underperformance—averaging less than one total base per game—suggests deeper issues than typical cold streaks. The lack of even moderate overs (no 2-3 total base games breaking through) indicates consistent weak contact rather than just missing on big swings.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate and -2.1 differential create clear value, but the extreme nature raises regression concerns. Target this trend when Martínez faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks where his limited power plays even worse. Main risk is that this level of underperformance is unsustainable long-term, but current pricing hasn't caught up to his actual production level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Angel Martínez's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Martínez has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging only 0.9 total bases against the typical 3.0 line, creating a massive -2.1 differential that favors unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Angel Martínez Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Martínez's total bases props. The 90% under rate and 71.8% ROI on unders show clear value, especially with his current six-game under streak indicating sustained offensive struggles rather than temporary variance.
What's Angel Martínez's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Martínez is averaging just 0.9 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.0 line. This creates a significant -2.1 differential, meaning he's falling short by more than two full bases per game on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Martínez total bases unders against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his limited power becomes even more pronounced. Avoid when he faces weak pitching in hitter-friendly environments where regression becomes more likely.