Andy Pages has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the under at a 70% clip with just 1.4 total bases per game against a 3.2 line. This -1.8 differential represents a massive 56% shortfall that's generated strong under value. Clear lean under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Andy Pages's total bases struggles stem from a perfect storm of rookie inconsistency and inflated expectations. His 1.4 average against a 3.2 line represents one of the most significant underperformances we've tracked, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his current form. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained pattern of underwhelming offensive output. Pages appears to be pressing at the plate, likely feeling the weight of expectations as a highly-touted prospect. His approach has become overly aggressive, leading to weak contact and strikeouts rather than the power production his scouting report suggested. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing potential that simply hasn't materialized. While regression toward league averages is always possible with young players, the consistency of this underperformance suggests deeper mechanical or mental adjustments are needed. The fact that he's managed just three overs in 10 games, with no sustained hot streaks, indicates this isn't variance but a genuine skill/approach issue. Until Pages demonstrates meaningful plate discipline improvements or finds his timing, the under remains the sharp play despite the seemingly obvious nature of the trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pages's 1.4 average represents such a dramatic underperformance that even with potential regression, there's substantial value on unders. The key is targeting games where he faces quality pitching or in situations where his aggressive approach gets exploited. Main risk is a sudden mechanical breakthrough that unlocks his prospect pedigree, but the consistency of struggles suggests this trend has more runway.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Pages's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Andy Pages has hit the over on his Total Bases prop just 3 times in his last 10 games, going 3-7-0 for a 30% over rate. This represents one of the most consistent underperformances we've tracked this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Andy Pages Total Bases props. His 1.4 average is 56% below the typical 3.2 line, creating substantial value on unders despite the obvious nature of the trend.
What's Andy Pages's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Andy Pages is averaging just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.2 line. This -1.8 differential represents a massive 56% shortfall from expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andy Pages Total Bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games where his aggressive approach gets exposed. Avoid when he's facing struggling pitchers where variance could work against the trend.