Andy Pages has been a consistent under performer at home, hitting just 35.5% of total bases overs with an average 0.5 bases below the typical line. The 23.2% ROI on unders combined with his recent 6-game under streak creates a compelling fade opportunity in familiar Dodger Stadium conditions.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player struggling to meet elevated expectations at home. Pages averages just 1.55 total bases per game at Dodger Stadium, consistently falling short of the 2.08 baseline that books typically set. This isn't random variance - it's a systematic pattern across 31 games that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his true home performance or there are underlying factors limiting his production. The -32.3% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overvaluing Pages in his home environment, while under backers have profited handsomely at +23.2%. His current two-game under streak pales in comparison to his season-long six-game under run, indicating this isn't just a cold spell but a persistent trend. The lack of available splits data prevents deeper context, but the raw performance gap is substantial enough to warrant attention. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency - with only 11 overs in 31 attempts, Pages has failed to reach his number in nearly two-thirds of home games. This level of underperformance rarely sustains without underlying cause, whether it's approach adjustments, pitcher familiarity, or ballpark factors that don't favor his hitting profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.5 base deficit per game and 23.2% under ROI create clear value, but the limited contextual data prevents high conviction. Target Pages under props when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching where his home struggles become magnified. The primary risk is regression to mean, but 31 games provide sufficient sample size to trust the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Pages's Total Bases prop record home games?
Andy Pages has gone over his total bases prop in just 11 of 31 home games (35.5% rate) this season. His under record of 20-11 represents one of the more reliable home trends for Dodgers position players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Andy Pages total bases at home. His consistent underperformance (1.55 average vs 2.08 line) and 23.2% under ROI make this one of the stronger home fade opportunities in baseball.
What's Andy Pages's average Total Bases home games?
Andy Pages averages 1.55 total bases per home game, which sits 0.5 bases below the typical 2.08 line that sportsbooks set. This half-base deficit has been remarkably consistent across his 31-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andy Pages total bases unders at home when the line is set at 2.0 or higher, particularly against above-average pitching. His struggles intensify against quality arms in the familiar Dodger Stadium environment.