Andy Pages presents one of the most lopsided home run trends in baseball, going under his home run total in 27 of 31 home games (12.9% over rate). Currently riding a 14-game under streak at Dodger Stadium, Pages averages just 0.13 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines. The under offers exceptional value with +66.3% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Andy Pages's home run struggles at Dodger Stadium reflect both ballpark suppression and his developing power profile. The rookie outfielder has managed just four home runs across 31 home games, a microscopic 0.13 per-game average that sits 74% below standard 0.5 lines. Dodger Stadium's marine layer and deeper dimensions particularly punish young hitters still learning to elevate consistently. Pages's swing path and approach suggest he's more gap-to-gap oriented at this stage, with his home run power coming in spurts rather than consistently. The 14-game under streak isn't fluky—it represents his natural power ceiling in this environment. His 27-4 under record translates to hitting just one home run every 7.75 home games, making 0.5 lines mathematically generous. While regression always looms for extreme trends, Pages's underlying metrics show limited barrel rate and exit velocity consistency at home. The Dodgers' loaded lineup also means he sees fewer mistake pitches in hitter's counts, as opponents can pitch around him. This isn't a veteran slugger in a temporary slump—it's a developing player whose current skill set doesn't match inflated home run expectations at a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Andy Pages's 12.9% over rate at home represents exceptional under value, supported by legitimate skill and environmental factors rather than random variance. The 0.13 home runs per game average makes 0.5 lines consistently overpriced. Target Pages home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, especially in day games when Dodger Stadium's marine layer is strongest. Main risk is eventual power development, but his current profile suggests continued under success.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andy Pages's Home Runs prop record home games?
Andy Pages has gone 4-27-0 over/under on his home run props in home games, hitting the over just 12.9% of the time. He's managed only four home runs across 31 games at Dodger Stadium, creating one of baseball's most lopsided prop trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andy Pages Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Andy Pages home run props with high confidence. His 12.9% over rate and 0.13 home runs per game average at home make under bets exceptionally profitable, generating +66.3% ROI compared to -75.4% on overs.
What's Andy Pages's average Home Runs home games?
Andy Pages averages 0.13 home runs per home game, sitting 0.37 below typical 0.5 lines. This massive 74% differential between his actual production and betting expectations creates consistent under value throughout his home schedule.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andy Pages home run unders during day games at Dodger Stadium when the marine layer is strongest, and when lines are set at 0.5. His power suppression is most pronounced in afternoon starts when environmental factors maximize.