Andrew Vaughn's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.0 average differential. The White Sox first baseman is averaging only 1.4 total bases against typical 2.4 lines, creating a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Vaughn's total bases collapse reflects the broader offensive struggles plaguing the White Sox during their historically poor 2024 campaign. His 1.4 average against 2.4 lines represents a massive 42% shortfall that suggests either chronic underperformance or consistently inflated bookmaker expectations. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of failing to reach modest benchmarks. What's particularly striking is the consistency of this trend - with only two overs in 10 games, we're not seeing the typical variance that would suggest random fluctuation. This points to fundamental issues with either his approach, health, or the quality of pitching he's facing. The White Sox's offensive environment has been toxic for individual production, with poor lineup protection and limited run-scoring opportunities reducing extra-base chances. However, bettors should be cautious about assuming this trend continues indefinitely. Regression is always possible, especially if Vaughn faces weaker pitching or if books begin adjusting lines downward. The sample size, while compelling, represents just 10 games in what has been an outlier season for Chicago's offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and massive -1.0 differential create compelling value, particularly given the White Sox's offensive environment and Vaughn's consistent struggles to reach modest benchmarks. Target this trend against quality pitching or in games with low run totals. Primary risk is potential line adjustment or positive regression if Vaughn's underlying metrics suggest better performance ahead.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Vaughn has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games (20% over rate), averaging just 1.4 total bases against typical 2.4 lines for a -1.0 differential and +52.7% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Vaughn's total bases props. The 80% under rate and massive -1.0 differential create strong value, especially given the White Sox's poor offensive environment and his current three-game under streak.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Vaughn is averaging 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games, a full base below the typical 2.4 line. This 42% shortfall represents significant underperformance against bookmaker expectations during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Vaughn total bases unders against quality starting pitching or in games with low run totals. The White Sox's offensive struggles make these props particularly valuable in challenging matchups or pitcher-friendly environments.