Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity with just 14 overs in 48 games (29.2% rate). His 1.6 average falls consistently short of the typical 2.1 line, creating a sustainable -0.5 differential. The under delivers strong value with +35.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Vaughn's home Total Bases performance reveals a stark disconnect between market expectations and reality. His 1.6 average at Guaranteed Rate Field sits a full half-base below the standard 2.1 line, indicating oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his home struggles. The 29.2% over rate across 48 games represents a statistically significant sample that suggests structural issues rather than variance. Vaughn's power metrics likely suffer at home due to Guaranteed Rate Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions, particularly the deep left field that neutralizes his pull-side tendencies. The current two-game under streak extends a pattern where Vaughn has hit lengthy cold stretches, including an eight-game under run that demonstrates his inconsistency. His home environment appears to suppress the extra-base hits necessary to reach higher Total Bases numbers, as singles contribute just one base while doubles, triples, and homers drive the prop over. The -44.3% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, while the +35.2% under ROI confirms the betting value. With no recent regression toward league norms and consistent underperformance against the line, Vaughn's home Total Bases props offer a rare combination of strong data backing and market inefficiency that creates sustainable betting value.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Vaughn's 1.6 home average creates a consistent half-base cushion against the typical 2.1 line, supported by 48 games of data showing just 29.2% overs. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, particularly in day games where his power metrics historically decline further. The primary risk involves potential lineup changes or a sudden power surge, but the sample size and venue-specific struggles suggest continued value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases prop record home games?
Andrew Vaughn has gone under his Total Bases prop in 34 of 48 home games (70.8% rate) with just 14 overs. His home record shows consistent underperformance against oddsmaker expectations, averaging 1.6 total bases per game at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases at home games. The data strongly supports this with a 70.8% under rate and +35.2% ROI. His 1.6 average consistently falls short of typical 2.0-2.1 lines, creating reliable betting value.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Total Bases home games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 1.6 Total Bases in home games, which falls 0.5 bases below the typical 2.1 line. This half-base differential has persisted across 48 games, indicating a structural advantage for under bettors rather than temporary variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Vaughn Total Bases unders when the line is 2.0 or higher at home games. Day games and matchups against quality pitching provide additional edge, as his power metrics decline further in these situations while maintaining the venue-based disadvantage.