Andrew Vaughn's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with a 71% hit rate across 93 games. His 1.42 average falls significantly short of the typical 1.97 line, creating a -0.6 differential that has generated +35.5% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Vaughn's total bases struggles stem from a perfect storm of offensive limitations that books haven't properly adjusted for. His 29% over rate across 93 games isn't random variance—it reflects fundamental issues with his approach and role within Chicago's anemic offense. The White Sox finished with one of baseball's worst offenses, limiting Vaughn's RBI opportunities and forcing him into more defensive at-bats. His power metrics show concerning regression, with reduced barrel rates and exit velocities that translate directly to fewer extra-base hits. The -0.6 differential between his actual performance and typical lines suggests books are pricing him based on positional expectations rather than actual production. His current three-game under streak aligns with a longer eight-game under streak earlier this season, indicating this isn't just a cold spell but a reflection of his true talent level. The consistency of this underperformance across different game situations strengthens the case that this is skill-based rather than luck-driven. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value on the under. With limited lineup protection and a team focused more on development than wins, Vaughn faces structural headwinds that should continue suppressing his total bases production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Andrew Vaughn's 71% under rate with +35.5% ROI represents one of the strongest systematic edges in baseball props. His 1.42 average consistently falls short of standard 1.97 lines, creating reliable value. Target games where books set lines at 1.5 or higher for maximum edge. The main risk is potential lineup changes or hot streaks, but his underlying metrics support continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Vaughn's Total Bases prop record all games?
Andrew Vaughn has gone under his total bases prop in 66 of 93 games (71%) with 27 overs. This 29% over rate has produced a devastating -44.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have enjoyed +35.5% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Vaughn Total Bases all games?
Bet UNDER on Andrew Vaughn's total bases props with high confidence. His 71% under rate and +35.5% ROI on unders across 93 games represents one of the strongest systematic edges in baseball, driven by consistent underperformance versus lines.
What's Andrew Vaughn's average Total Bases all games?
Andrew Vaughn averages 1.42 total bases per game compared to the typical 1.97 line, creating a significant -0.6 differential. This gap between actual performance and book expectations has been remarkably consistent across his 93-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where books set Vaughn's total bases line at 1.5 or higher for maximum value. His underlying power metrics and team context suggest this edge should persist regardless of opponent, making any elevated line a betting opportunity.