Andrew Benintendi's Total Bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity, going 16-27-0 O/U for just 37.2% overs. With a -0.3 differential averaging 1.67 total bases against 1.94 lines, the under delivers +19.9% ROI versus -29.0% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Benintendi's home struggles reflect a fundamental shift in his offensive profile since joining Chicago. The 1.67 average against 1.94 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power production in a White Sox uniform. This isn't just a small sample aberration—the 43-game dataset spans over a year, establishing genuine pattern recognition. The -0.3 differential is significant for total bases props, where even elite hitters rarely exceed 2.0 consistently. Benintendi's contact-heavy approach generates singles but lacks the extra-base upside that inflates total bases numbers. Home park factors likely contribute, as Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions don't particularly favor his pull-heavy spray chart. The 7-game under streak maximum versus 5-game over streak indicates this trend has staying power rather than wild volatility. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency—even during hot streaks, Benintendi rarely explodes for the 3+ total base games needed to overcome the mathematical disadvantage built into these lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 19.9% ROI on unders combined with consistent underperformance versus the line creates sustainable value. Target games where Benintendi faces quality pitching or when the line sits at 1.5 or higher. Primary risk is a sudden power surge, but his recent profile suggests contact over extra bases remains his ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Benintendi's Total Bases prop record home games?
Benintendi's Total Bases prop record at home is 16-27-0 O/U, hitting overs just 37.2% of the time across 43 games. This represents a significant underperformance against market expectations with unders providing consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Benintendi Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Benintendi's Total Bases at home. The 19.9% ROI on unders combined with his 1.67 average against 1.94 lines creates sustainable value, especially when the line is 1.5 or higher.
What's Andrew Benintendi's average Total Bases home games?
Benintendi averages 1.67 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines around 1.94, creating a -0.3 differential. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Benintendi Total Bases unders when he faces quality pitching at home or when the line sits at 1.5+. Avoid after extended cold streaks when regression might temporarily favor overs.