Andrew Benintendi's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with a historically low 29.4% over rate across 85 games. His 1.35 average sits 0.6 bases below the typical 1.95 line, generating a robust +34.8% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Benintendi's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that books haven't fully adjusted for. The 0.6-base differential between his actual production and the betting line represents one of the most consistent edges in player props. His 29.4% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with power production. The White Sox's offensive environment compounds this problem, as their league-worst team context limits RBI opportunities and extra-base situations. Benintendi's contact-oriented approach generates singles but lacks the pop needed to consistently reach 2+ total bases. The 10-game under streak in his sample demonstrates how sustained slumps can devastate total bases production. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, likely due to his previous track record and name recognition. The +34.8% under ROI across 85 games represents substantial sample size validation. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though regression risk exists given the extreme nature of his underperformance. The lack of recent hot streaks longer than seven games suggests limited ceiling for explosive performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Benintendi's systematic underperformance creates a profitable betting edge, but the extreme nature of his struggles raises regression concerns. Target unders when lines remain at 1.5+ total bases, as his 1.35 average provides comfortable margin. The primary risk is positive regression to his career norms, though his current offensive environment and approach suggest continued struggles with extra-base production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Benintendi's Total Bases prop record all games?
Andrew Benintendi has gone under his total bases prop in 60 of 85 games (70.6%) with an average of just 1.35 total bases per game. This 25-60-0 record represents one of the most lopsided prop trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Benintendi Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Benintendi's total bases props. His 1.35 average sits 0.6 bases below typical lines, creating a +34.8% ROI on unders. Target lines of 1.5+ for maximum value given his consistent underperformance.
What's Andrew Benintendi's average Total Bases all games?
Benintendi averages 1.35 total bases per game, significantly below the standard 1.95 line. This 0.6-base differential represents the core edge, as books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power production in Chicago's offensive environment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Benintendi total bases unders when lines remain at 1.5 or higher, particularly against quality pitching. His contact-oriented approach and limited power make him vulnerable when books don't fully account for his current production level.