Andrew Benintendi's home run production at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under 0.5 home runs in 37 of 43 games (86.0% rate). The White Sox outfielder averages just 0.16 home runs per home game against a standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.34 differential. This represents a strong LEAN UNDER with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Benintendi's home run futility at Guaranteed Rate Field stems from a perfect storm of unfavorable factors. His contact-oriented approach generates minimal power output, evidenced by averaging just one home run every six home games over this 16-month sample. The White Sox's offensive struggles compound this issue, as poor lineup protection and limited run-scoring opportunities reduce his chances for favorable counts and mistake pitches. Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions don't particularly favor left-handed power, and Benintendi's spray chart shows he rarely elevates balls to his pull side where home runs are most likely. The 14-game under streak highlights his consistency in failing to reach the modest 0.5 threshold. While regression toward league averages is always possible, Benintendi's fundamental approach hasn't changed - he remains a slap hitter who prioritizes contact over power. The sample size of 43 games provides statistical significance, and his 14.0% over rate suggests this isn't random variance but a reflection of his true talent level in home conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Benintendi's 86.0% under rate at home reflects his genuine lack of power rather than a statistical fluke. The -0.34 average differential creates consistent value on unders, particularly when the line stays at 0.5. The primary risk involves potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling pitchers, but his contact-first approach makes dramatic power surges unlikely even in optimal conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Benintendi's Home Runs prop record home games?
Benintendi's home run prop record in home games is 6-37-0 over/under, meaning he's gone under the 0.5 line in 37 of 43 games (86.0%). This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Benintendi Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Benintendi's home runs in home games. His 86.0% under rate and -0.34 average differential against the 0.5 line create consistent value. His contact-first approach makes power surges unlikely.
What's Andrew Benintendi's average Home Runs home games?
Benintendi averages 0.16 home runs per home game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.34 differential represents the largest gap between actual production and betting expectations among regular players.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Benintendi home run unders when facing quality pitchers who limit hard contact. Avoid betting when he faces struggling relievers or in obvious blowout spots where garbage-time at-bats could provide extra opportunities.