Andrew Benintendi's home hits prop shows clear under value with just 46.5% overs across 43 games. His 0.98 average sits 0.2 hits below the typical 1.2 line, generating positive 2.1% ROI on unders while overs lose -11.2%. This creates a sustainable edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Benintendi's home hitting struggles reflect a clear pattern of underperformance relative to market expectations. The 0.98 hits per game average represents a significant 16.7% shortfall from the standard 1.2 line, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished production at Guaranteed Rate Field. This isn't a small sample anomaly—43 games provides substantial evidence of a legitimate trend. The -11.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his home hitting ability, while the positive 2.1% under ROI confirms exploitable value. His longest under streak of 11 games shows the trend can persist for extended periods, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental issue with his home approach. The White Sox's offensive struggles and Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions may contribute to suppressed hit totals. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency—even during his longest over streak of 8 games, the overall sample still favors unders. This indicates any hot streaks are temporary corrections rather than trend reversals, making the under a mathematically sound approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Benintendi's 0.98 home hits average creates consistent value against 1.2+ lines, supported by positive under ROI and 53.5% under rate. The 43-game sample size provides confidence this reflects genuine home struggles rather than variance. Primary risk is a potential breakout streak, but his 11-game under streak shows the trend's persistence. Target standard 1.2 lines for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Benintendi's Hits prop record home games?
Andrew Benintendi has gone under his hits prop in 23 of 43 home games (53.5% under rate) with 20 overs. His under bets show positive 2.1% ROI while overs lose -11.2%, indicating consistent market overvaluation of his home hitting ability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Benintendi Hits home games?
Bet under on Andrew Benintendi's hits props at home games. His 0.98 average sits well below typical 1.2 lines, creating exploitable value. The 53.5% under rate and positive under ROI support this approach with medium confidence.
What's Andrew Benintendi's average Hits home games?
Andrew Benintendi averages 0.98 hits per home game, which is 0.2 hits below the standard 1.2 line. This 16.7% differential creates consistent under value, as books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished home production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Benintendi hits unders when lines are set at 1.2 or higher at home games. The edge is strongest on standard lines where his 0.98 average creates maximum value differential against market expectations.