Alex Bregman has been ice-cold for power, hitting just 1 home run in his last 10 games while going 1-9-0 against his props. With a catastrophic -80.9% ROI on overs and a 9-game under streak, this represents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Bregman's power drought represents one of the most reliable fade spots in baseball right now. His 0.1 home runs per game over this stretch sits a massive 0.4 below his typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 9-game under streak isn't just variance — it reflects a fundamental shift in Bregman's approach or physical condition during this late-season stretch. What makes this trend particularly bankable is the consistency: he's not alternating between explosive games and quiet ones, but rather showing sustained power suppression. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates how the market has been slow to adjust, likely still pricing in Bregman's reputation rather than his current form. This type of extended power slump often persists longer than casual bettors expect, especially late in the season when fatigue accumulates and pitchers have extensive video on hitters' tendencies. The sample size of 10 games provides enough data to establish a pattern while still being recent enough to reflect current conditions. Until Bregman shows signs of breaking out with multiple extra-base hits or changes in his swing mechanics, this under trend should continue to provide value.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bregman's complete power shutdown over 10 games creates a premium fade spot that the market hasn't fully absorbed. Target unders when his line stays at 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality arms. The main risk is regression to career norms, but his 9-game streak suggests this is more than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alex Bregman's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Alex Bregman has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his home run props in his last 10 games, with just 1 home run total. He's averaged 0.1 homers per game versus his typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alex Bregman Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Alex Bregman's home run props with high confidence. His 9-game under streak and 71.8% ROI on unders represent one of baseball's most reliable fade spots. The power drought appears persistent rather than random variance, making unders the clear play.
What's Alex Bregman's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Alex Bregman has averaged just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.4 below his typical 0.5 line. This massive gap between production and expectations has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this extended slump.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alex Bregman home run unders when his line stays at 0.5, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality starting pitching. His current 9-game under streak suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted, creating optimal betting windows before lines drop further.