Alec Burleson's Total Bases prop in away games presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting under 78% of the time with a brutal -1.3 average differential from the line. Currently riding an 11-game under streak, this represents a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Burleson's away Total Bases performance reveals a player fundamentally overvalued by oddsmakers in hostile environments. Averaging just 1.39 total bases against a typical 2.7 line creates a massive -1.3 differential that speaks to systemic mispricing rather than random variance. The 78% under rate across 49 games establishes this as a persistent pattern, not a temporary slump. Road environments clearly impact Burleson's offensive production significantly, whether through unfamiliar ballparks, opposing crowd energy, or simple home-road splits that books haven't properly adjusted for. The current 11-game under streak might seem unsustainable, but it actually reinforces the underlying trend rather than suggesting imminent regression. Burleson's profile as a young player still establishing consistency makes him particularly vulnerable to the challenges of road play. The +48% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a winning trend but a profitable one, indicating the market continues to set lines too high despite overwhelming evidence. With no meaningful over streaks longer than two games, this represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in baseball props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burleson's Total Bases props away from home offer exceptional value with a 78% under rate and +48% ROI. The -1.3 average differential indicates consistent line inflation, while the 11-game under streak reinforces rather than threatens the trend. Target this prop whenever Burleson plays on the road, particularly against quality pitching where his struggles amplify.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Total Bases prop record away games?
Burleson's Total Bases record in away games is 11-38-0 over/under, hitting the under 78% of the time. He averages just 1.39 total bases against typical lines around 2.7, creating a significant -1.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Total Bases away games?
Bet UNDER on Burleson's Total Bases in away games with high confidence. The 78% under rate and +48% ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable prop fades, supported by consistent underperformance relative to inflated lines.
What's Alec Burleson's average Total Bases away games?
Burleson averages 1.39 total bases in away games, significantly below the typical 2.7 line for a -1.3 differential. This massive gap between performance and expectations creates exceptional value for under bettors in road spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson's Total Bases props in any away game, especially against quality pitching staffs where his struggles intensify. The trend shows no meaningful conditions where overs become viable, making every road game a betting opportunity.