Alec Burleson's total bases props offer exceptional under value with just 26.8% overs across 82 games. His 1.44 average sits 1.1 bases below the typical 2.54 line, creating a massive -48.8% ROI on overs versus +39.7% on unders. This represents a clear systematic underbet by the market.
Expert Analysis
The Cardinals utility man has been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers, creating one of the most reliable under trends in baseball. Burleson's 1.44 total bases average reveals a player whose offensive output simply doesn't match betting market expectations. The 12-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the culmination of fundamental offensive limitations that books haven't properly adjusted for. His career trajectory shows a player who makes contact but lacks the power consistency needed to regularly exceed inflated lines. The 22-60 over-under record spans multiple seasons and situations, suggesting this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects Burleson's true offensive ceiling. Books appear to be pricing him based on occasional multi-hit games rather than his consistent singles-heavy approach. The massive ROI differential (+39.7% under vs -48.8% over) indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, yet public perception and book adjustments remain slow. With no significant splits data suggesting situational variance, this trend appears remarkably stable across different contexts. The persistence of this pattern through 82 games provides substantial confidence that Burleson's true talent level sits well below market pricing.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burleson's systematic market overvaluation creates exceptional under value at standard 2.5+ total bases lines. The 73.2% under rate across 82 games, combined with his 1.44 average versus typical 2.54 lines, represents one of baseball's most reliable prop edges. Target this whenever lines exceed 2.0 total bases, with strongest conviction above 2.5. Primary risk is small sample variance, but 82 games provides robust evidence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Total Bases prop record all games?
Burleson's total bases record shows 22 overs and 60 unders across 82 games, translating to just 26.8% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders hitting nearly three times more frequently than overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Burleson's total bases props with high confidence. His 73.2% under rate and 1.44 average versus typical 2.54 lines create exceptional value. Target any line above 2.0 bases, with strongest conviction at 2.5+.
What's Alec Burleson's average Total Bases all games?
Burleson averages 1.44 total bases per game compared to the typical 2.54 line, creating a massive 1.1 base deficit. This differential explains why unders hit 73.2% of the time and generate +39.7% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Burleson total bases unders whenever lines exceed 2.0, with peak value at 2.5+ lines. The trend shows no situational variance, making it reliable across all game contexts and opponent matchups.