Alec Burleson has gone hitless in the power department over his last 10 games, posting a perfect 0-10-0 record on home run unders with zero long balls against a standard 0.5 line. This represents a complete power drought that demands serious attention from under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Alec Burleson's complete home run drought over 10 games reveals a player whose power stroke has entirely vanished during the season's final month. The Cardinals first baseman managed zero home runs against a consistent 0.5 line, creating a remarkable -100% ROI for over bettors while delivering +90.9% returns for those backing the under. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a fundamental absence of power production that suggests either mechanical issues, fatigue, or situational factors that have neutralized Burleson's ability to drive balls over the fence. The timing coincides with September baseball, when expanded rosters often mean facing fresher arms and specialized matchups that can expose hitters' weaknesses. Burleson's power profile appears to have shifted dramatically, as even hitters in prolonged slumps typically manage occasional mistake-pitch home runs over 10-game samples. The consistency of this trend—10 straight unders without a single over—indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained change in his offensive capabilities. For a player whose value proposition relies heavily on power production, this drought represents either a temporary mechanical adjustment period or a more concerning decline in his ability to impact the baseball with authority.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burleson's complete power absence over 10 games suggests a fundamental shift rather than temporary variance. The 0.5 home run line remains beatable given his current form, especially if mechanical issues or fatigue persist. Main risk is regression to career norms, but the sustained nature of this drought indicates underlying factors beyond normal slump patterns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Alec Burleson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Alec Burleson has posted a perfect 0-10-0 record on home run overs in his last 10 games, with zero home runs against the standard 0.5 line, representing complete power drought.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Burleson's home runs with high confidence. His complete 10-game power absence suggests sustained issues rather than temporary variance, making the 0.5 line very beatable.
What's Alec Burleson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Burleson has averaged 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential that strongly favors under results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson home run unders when he faces quality pitching or in day games where his power numbers historically decline. Avoid betting when he faces struggling pitchers in hitter-friendly conditions.