Alec Burleson's home run production away from Busch Stadium presents one of baseball's most reliable under trends. His 7-42-0 record (14.3% overs) and devastating -72.7% ROI on overs reflect consistent power struggles on the road. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Burleson's road power numbers tell a story of dramatic environmental dependency that goes beyond typical home/away splits. His 0.14 average sits 0.4 home runs below the standard line, indicating sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his road struggles. The 20-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects systematic challenges that plague many Cardinals hitters away from their favorable home dimensions. Burleson's swing mechanics and approach appear particularly sensitive to different ballpark factors, whether that's altered sight lines, varying mound heights, or simply the psychological comfort of familiar surroundings. The complete absence of over clusters in this sample size suggests this isn't a temporary slump but a fundamental limitation in his current skill set. While young players can develop road power over time, Burleson's consistent inability to clear fences away from St. Louis has created a market inefficiency. The 63.6% ROI on unders demonstrates clear value, though bettors should monitor any mechanical adjustments or lineup changes that might signal improvement. Until proven otherwise, Burleson's road power profile remains predictably limited.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burleson's road power struggles represent a clear market inefficiency with his 14.3% over rate and 20-game under streak providing overwhelming evidence. Target this prop when he faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly parks to maximize edge. The primary risk is eventual regression, but his consistent mechanical issues away from home suggest this trend has staying power through the remainder of his current development phase.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Home Runs prop record away games?
Burleson's home run prop record in away games stands at 7-42-0, hitting the over just 14.3% of the time across 49 games. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Home Runs away games?
Bet the under on Burleson's home runs in away games. His 14.3% over rate and 63.6% ROI on unders provide a clear mathematical edge that the market hasn't properly adjusted for.
What's Alec Burleson's average Home Runs away games?
Burleson averages 0.14 home runs per away game, sitting 0.4 home runs below the typical line of 0.52. This significant gap indicates consistent underperformance relative to market expectations on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. These conditions amplify his existing road power struggles and provide the strongest betting edge.