Alec Burleson's home run props present one of baseball's most reliable under trends, hitting just 10.8% overs across 83 games with a devastating -79.3% ROI on overs. His 0.12 average sits 0.4 homers below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders with exceptional 70.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Alec Burleson's home run props reveal a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. His 9-74 over/under record represents more than statistical noise—it reflects a player whose power profile doesn't align with standard prop pricing. Averaging 0.12 home runs per game against lines typically set at 0.52, Burleson consistently falls short by meaningful margins. The current 20-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the continuation of a persistent pattern rooted in his contact-oriented approach and moderate exit velocity metrics. While regression toward league averages might seem inevitable, Burleson's profile suggests limited upside potential. His swing mechanics and plate approach favor line drives over launch angle optimization, making dramatic power surges unlikely. The market appears to price him based on positional expectations rather than individual skill set, creating systematic mispricing. The lack of meaningful over streaks—his longest being just three games—indicates this isn't a streaky power hitter experiencing temporary drought but rather a consistent singles-and-doubles producer being overvalued for home run production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 70.2% ROI on unders combined with Burleson's consistent inability to reach inflated home run lines creates exceptional betting value. Target unders when lines exceed 0.5, particularly in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality opponents. The primary risk involves potential lineup changes or park factors, but his fundamental approach makes dramatic power improvement unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Home Runs prop record all games?
Alec Burleson's home run prop record across all games shows 9 overs and 74 unders in 83 total games, producing a 10.8% over rate with -79.3% ROI on overs and +70.2% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Alec Burleson's home run props with high confidence. His 10.8% over rate and 20-game under streak indicate systematic market overvaluation, creating consistent value on unders with exceptional 70.2% ROI.
What's Alec Burleson's average Home Runs all games?
Alec Burleson averages 0.12 home runs per game across all situations, sitting 0.4 homers below typical prop lines of 0.52. This significant differential explains his consistently poor over performance and strong under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson home run unders when lines exceed 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality opponents. His contact-oriented approach and 20-game under streak suggest consistent value regardless of specific game conditions.