Alec Burleson's home hitting props present a clear under opportunity with just 44.1% overs across 34 games. His 1.12 home average sits 0.3 hits below the typical 1.41 line, generating positive under ROI of 6.7%. The data strongly favors betting under on Burleson's hits in St. Louis.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Alec Burleson's home hitting struggles. Averaging just 1.12 hits per game at Busch Stadium while books consistently set lines around 1.41 creates a meaningful 0.3-hit gap that sharp bettors can exploit. This isn't a small sample fluke—34 games provides substantial evidence of a legitimate home disadvantage. Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions and Burleson's apparent comfort issues at home have created a sustainable edge. The -15.8% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated expectations, while under bettors have profited with 6.7% returns. His current 2-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and the 7-game maximum under streak suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home limitations. The 15-19 under record translates to 55.9% under success, well above the 52.4% needed to overcome standard -110 juice. Most concerning for over backers is the persistence of this trend—there's no evidence of home field advantage helping Burleson's contact rate or BABIP luck.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Burleson's home hitting data reveals a legitimate market inefficiency that books haven't fully corrected. The 0.3-hit differential between his average and typical lines creates consistent value on unders, particularly when lines sit at 1.5 hits. Target games where the line reaches 1.5 for maximum edge. Primary risk involves small sample variance and potential lineup changes affecting his role and at-bats.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Hits prop record home games?
Alec Burleson's hits prop record in home games stands at 15-19-0 over/under, translating to 44.1% overs and 55.9% unders. This represents a clear pattern favoring under bets across 34 games at Busch Stadium.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Hits home games?
Bet under on Alec Burleson's hits in home games. His 1.12 average sits well below typical 1.41 lines, creating consistent value. Under bettors show 6.7% ROI while overs lose 15.8%.
What's Alec Burleson's average Hits home games?
Alec Burleson averages 1.12 hits per home game compared to the standard 1.41 line, creating a significant 0.3-hit differential. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson hits unders when lines reach 1.5 at home for maximum value. His struggles at Busch Stadium are most pronounced in day games and against quality pitching staffs that exploit the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions.