Alec Burleson's hits prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting the over just 32.7% of the time across 49 games with a -0.5 differential to the typical 1.4 line. The Cardinals first baseman averages only 0.86 hits on the road, generating +28.6% ROI for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Burleson's road struggles stem from a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. Averaging 0.86 hits per away game against a standard 1.4 line creates consistent value on the under, evidenced by the strong +28.6% ROI for under bettors over 49 games. The 67.3% under rate isn't a fluke—it reflects genuine road challenges that plague many young hitters adjusting to different environments, opposing crowds, and unfamiliar ballparks. His longest under streak of 12 games demonstrates the persistence of these struggles, while his longest over streak maxed at just three games, showing limited hot streaks. The -37.7% ROI on overs confirms this isn't random variance but a systematic pattern. Road hitting requires different timing adjustments, sleep patterns, and mental approach that Burleson hasn't mastered. With only one current over in his streak, the data suggests regression toward his established road norm rather than a breakout. The Cardinals' offensive environment at home clearly benefits him more than road conditions, making this a sustainable edge rather than a temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Burleson's 0.86 road average creates a significant edge against the typical 1.4 line, supported by strong historical returns and persistent struggles away from St. Louis. Target this prop when lines sit at 1.5 or higher for maximum value. The main risk involves potential lineup changes or increased playing time that could boost opportunities, but his established road hitting deficiencies make the under the smart long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Burleson's Hits prop record away games?
Alec Burleson's hits prop record in away games shows 16 overs and 33 unders across 49 games, hitting the over just 32.7% of the time. This translates to a strong under trend with consistent value for contrarian bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Burleson Hits away games?
Bet under on Alec Burleson's hits in away games. His 0.86 road average against typical 1.4 lines provides sustainable value, backed by +28.6% ROI and a 67.3% under rate across 49 games.
What's Alec Burleson's average Hits away games?
Alec Burleson averages 0.86 hits per away game, sitting 0.5 hits below the standard 1.4 line. This significant differential creates consistent under value and explains the strong 67.3% under rate over his sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burleson's hits props when lines reach 1.5 or higher in away games for maximum edge. Avoid betting during hot streaks, as his road struggles typically reassert themselves within 3-4 games based on historical patterns.