Alec Bohm's total bases prop shows clear under value with a 48.3% over rate (14-15 record) and -0.1 average differential below the standard 2.22 line. The under bet has generated positive ROI while overs have been costly. Lean under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Alec Bohm's total bases performance reveals a consistent pattern of falling short of market expectations. His 2.1 average against a 2.22 line represents a meaningful 5.4% gap that has persisted across 29 games spanning over a year. The -7.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that consistently overvalues Bohm's power output. This isn't a player experiencing a cold streak—it's a fundamental mismatch between perception and production. Bohm's profile as a contact-first third baseman aligns with these numbers. He's not a traditional power threat, making his total bases props vulnerable to inflation based on position expectations rather than actual output. The current three-game under streak fits the broader pattern rather than suggesting imminent regression. His longest over streak of eight games shows he can get hot, but the overall 48.3% over rate indicates these hot stretches are outliers rather than his baseline performance. The under's near break-even ROI of -1.2% suggests sharp money has already identified this edge, but there's still value when lines remain elevated. Bohm's consistency in underperforming creates a reliable betting angle, particularly when books fail to adjust adequately for his contact-over-power approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bohm's 48.3% over rate and -0.1 differential create a sustainable edge for under bettors. The market consistently overrates his power potential, making under bets profitable when the line sits at 2.0 or higher. Main risk is variance during his occasional hot streaks, but his contact-first profile supports continued underperformance versus inflated total bases expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Bohm's Total Bases prop record all games?
Alec Bohm's total bases prop record stands at 14-15 (48.3% overs) across 29 games from May 2023 to September 2024. The under has a slight edge with 15 wins versus 14 overs, reflecting consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Bohm Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Alec Bohm's total bases props. His 2.1 average versus 2.22 typical line creates value, supported by a 52% under rate and positive ROI. The market overvalues his power potential given his contact-first approach.
What's Alec Bohm's average Total Bases all games?
Alec Bohm averages 2.1 total bases per game across this sample, sitting 0.1 below the standard 2.22 line. This 5.4% negative differential has persisted over 29 games, indicating a systematic market overvaluation of his power output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bohm's total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, particularly after brief hot streaks when books might overcorrect upward. His contact-first profile makes him most valuable as an under play in standard game conditions.