Alec Bohm presents one of the most reliable under plays in baseball, hitting just 10.7% overs across 28 games with a brutal -0.4 differential from the standard 0.5 home run line. Currently riding a nine-game under streak, this represents a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Alec Bohm's home run prop represents a fundamental market inefficiency that bettors should exploit aggressively. The third baseman has managed just three home runs over 28 tracked games, producing an anemic 0.11 average against the standard 0.5 line. This isn't variance—it's who Bohm is as a hitter. His contact-oriented approach prioritizes putting the ball in play over lifting for power, making him ill-suited for the modern home run environment. The market continues pricing him as a threat to leave the yard nightly, but Bohm's swing mechanics and approach suggest otherwise. His current nine-game under streak isn't an outlier; it's the norm. The 70.5% ROI on unders demonstrates how consistently profitable this fade has been. Bohm's gap power occasionally produces doubles, but his launch angle and exit velocity profiles don't support regular home run production. Without significant mechanical changes or a shift in approach, expecting Bohm to suddenly start clearing fences regularly defies both his track record and his skill set. The persistence of this trend across different matchups and situations suggests it's sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bohm's home run props offer elite value based on his contact-first approach and consistent underperformance. The 89.3% under rate across 28 games isn't fluky—it reflects his true power ceiling. Target this play regardless of matchup, as even favorable pitching situations rarely elevate Bohm's home run probability meaningfully. The main risk is an occasional cheapie down the line, but the long-term edge remains substantial.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Bohm's Home Runs prop record all games?
Alec Bohm's home run prop record shows 3-25-0 over/under across 28 games, hitting just 10.7% overs. He's averaging 0.11 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Bohm Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Alec Bohm's home runs with high confidence. His 89.3% under rate and 70.5% ROI on unders make this one of the most reliable prop bets available. His contact-oriented approach simply doesn't support regular home run production.
What's Alec Bohm's average Home Runs all games?
Alec Bohm averages 0.11 home runs per game, well below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectation, making unders extremely valuable long-term plays.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Alec Bohm home run unders consistently regardless of matchup. His approach and mechanics make him unlikely to go deep even against weaker pitching. The nine-game under streak shows this edge persists across various game situations and opponents.