Akil Baddoo's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 29.2% overs across 24 games, averaging 1.0 bases against a 1.25 line. The Tigers outfielder sits in a brutal 10-game under streak, delivering +35.2% ROI for under bettors. This is a strong lean under with multiple supporting factors.
Expert Analysis
Akil Baddoo's total bases struggles stem from fundamental offensive limitations that make the standard 1.25 line consistently overvalued. His 1.0 average against the 1.25 line creates a meaningful 0.25-base gap that compounds over time, explaining the devastating -44.3% ROI for over bettors. The current 10-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects Baddoo's limited power profile and inconsistent contact quality that prevents him from reaching multi-base hits regularly. Detroit's offensive environment and Baddoo's role in the lineup further constrain his ceiling, as he rarely sees premium hitting situations or favorable matchups. The 29.2% over rate across 24 games represents a large enough sample to establish pattern reliability, especially given the consistency of the underlying factors. Baddoo's plate discipline metrics and batted ball data likely show limited hard contact rates and poor barrel percentage, making extra-base hits sporadic events rather than expected outcomes. Books appear slow to adjust this line downward, creating persistent value on unders. The streak length suggests either continued poor form or that 1.25 simply exceeds his true talent level for total bases production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Baddoo's 1.0 average against a 1.25 line creates consistent value, supported by a 10-game under streak and +35.2% under ROI. The 29.2% over rate across 24 games indicates systematic line overvaluation rather than temporary variance. Target this when the line remains at 1.25 or higher, especially in games where Detroit faces quality pitching that further limits his extra-base opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Akil Baddoo's Total Bases prop record all games?
Akil Baddoo's total bases record shows 7-17-0 over/under across 24 games, hitting just 29.2% overs. He averages 1.0 total bases against the typical 1.25 line, creating a significant 0.25-base deficit that consistently favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Akil Baddoo Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Baddoo's total bases props. His 1.0 average against 1.25 lines, current 10-game under streak, and +35.2% under ROI all support consistent under value. The 29.2% over rate indicates systematic line overvaluation.
What's Akil Baddoo's average Total Bases all games?
Baddoo averages exactly 1.0 total bases across 24 games, falling 0.25 bases short of the standard 1.25 line. This gap explains why under bettors have generated +35.2% ROI while overs have lost -44.3%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baddoo total bases unders when the line is 1.25 or higher, especially against quality pitching staffs. His 10-game under streak and consistent 1.0 average suggest the best time is simply whenever books offer the standard inflated line.