Aaron Judge's home run prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on the over side. Judge is averaging only 0.3 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, creating a clear edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
Judge's recent power outage represents a significant departure from his elite standards, with the slugger managing just three home runs across 10 games while books continue pricing him at 0.5+ lines. This 0.2 differential below expectation suggests either a mechanical issue, fatigue from the season's grind, or simple regression after an explosive first half. The 70% under rate is particularly striking given Judge's reputation, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current form. The five-game under streak that dominated this sample shows sustained struggles rather than random variance. However, this creates a dangerous fade-the-public scenario where one vintage Judge performance could devastate under bettors. The -42.7% over ROI reflects consistent line inflation, but Judge's track record suggests this cold spell is more aberration than new normal. Late-season fatigue often impacts power numbers, and Judge's massive frame may be showing wear. Still, his underlying metrics and approach haven't fundamentally changed, making this trend vulnerable to sudden reversal. The key question becomes whether this represents sustainable decline or compressed variance ready to explode.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Judge's sustained power drought creates clear value on under props, especially with books slow to adjust lines downward. The 70% under rate and negative differential support continued fades, but the risk of explosive variance remains high given Judge's elite ceiling. Target spots where books haven't dropped the line below 0.5, but avoid heavy exposure given regression risk.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Judge's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Judge went 3-7-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs with three total home runs. The under delivered a solid +33.6% ROI while overs lost -42.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Judge Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Judge's home run props. His 70% under rate and 0.2 negative differential create clear value, though avoid heavy exposure given his explosive upside and potential regression.
What's Aaron Judge's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Judge averaged 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10, sitting 0.2 below typical 0.5 lines. This negative differential represents the core edge driving profitable under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Judge home run unders when books maintain 0.5+ lines despite his cold streak. Avoid betting after long layoffs or in favorable hitting environments where variance risk peaks.