Aaron Judge's hits prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, going under in 70% of his last 10 games with a brutal 0.9 average against a 1.9 line. The Yankees slugger is averaging one full hit below expectations, creating a massive -1.0 differential that screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Judge's hitting struggles over this 10-game stretch represent a dramatic departure from his elite contact skills, with the 0.9 hits per game average sitting well below his career norms. This isn't just bad luck — it's a sustained pattern of offensive inefficiency that suggests either mechanical issues or opposing pitchers successfully exploiting a weakness. The 70% under rate is particularly striking because Judge typically maintains consistent contact even during power slumps. The five-game under streak within this sample indicates the market has been slow to adjust, continuing to price Judge based on his reputation rather than current form. What makes this trend especially compelling is the magnitude of the differential — a full hit below the line suggests books are still anchoring to Judge's peak performance rather than his recent reality. The lack of even a brief hot streak to interrupt this pattern raises questions about whether this represents a temporary funk or a more concerning decline in his approach at the plate.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Judge's sustained hitting struggles create legitimate value on the under, but his elite track record demands caution against assuming permanent decline. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as the 0.9 average provides significant cushion. Primary risk is Judge breaking out of this funk explosively, as elite hitters often do.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Judge's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Judge has gone 3-7-0 on his hits over/under in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance with only 3 overs in 10 attempts, creating strong value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Judge Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Judge's hits props based on his recent 0.9 average and 70% under rate. The data supports betting unders, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, though his elite history warrants some caution.
What's Aaron Judge's average Hits last 10 games?
Judge is averaging just 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting a full hit below the typical 1.9 line. This massive -1.0 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations for an elite hitter.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Judge hits unders when lines are 1.5 or higher, particularly during day games or against quality pitching staffs. Avoid betting during potential breakout spots like home games against struggling pitchers where variance could quickly reverse this trend.