The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 137-146-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record137-146-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size283 games
ROI-7.6%
Units Won-21.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201418-10-00.0%+22.7%
201511-15-00.0%-19.2%
201616-10-00.0%+17.5%
201714-14-00.0%-4.5%
20187-15-00.0%-39.3%
201911-14-00.0%-16.0%
202011-14-00.0%-16.0%
20216-17-00.0%-50.2%
202219-8-00.0%+34.3%
202314-14-00.0%-4.5%
202410-15-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' struggles with extended rest reflect a fundamental organizational issue that has persisted across multiple rebuilding cycles. Pittsburgh's roster construction typically emphasizes young, developing players who thrive on rhythm and regular playing time. When these inexperienced players face three or more days off, they lose the momentum that comes from consistent at-bats and defensive repetitions, leading to sluggish starts against teams that may have maintained better game conditioning. The Pirates' pitching staff particularly suffers from extended layoffs. Their rotation has historically relied on command and location rather than overpowering stuff, making timing and feel crucial elements. Rest disrupts these pitchers' ability to locate precisely, while their bullpen often lacks the veteran presence needed to navigate high-leverage situations after long breaks. The team's offensive approach, built around contact and situational hitting rather than power, also deteriorates when players lose their timing at the plate. Smart bettors should target Pittsburgh as a fade opportunity when they return from extended rest, especially in the first game back. This trend carries the most weight in April and May when weather delays are common, and again in September when roster expansion can further disrupt established routines and chemistry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an ATS record of 137-146-0 when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.4% win rate against the spread over 283 games.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -7.6% ROI over the past decade. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Pittsburgh in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Pirates' 48.4% ATS win rate with extended rest is below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. The -7.6% ROI suggests they underperform compared to league averages in this specific situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.