The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as zero days rest, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 118-120-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record118-120-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size238 games
ROI-5.3%
Units Won-12.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-11-00.0%-4.5%
201510-9-00.0%+0.5%
20169-12-00.0%-18.2%
201714-8-00.0%+21.5%
201811-13-00.0%-12.5%
201913-9-00.0%+12.8%
202012-17-00.0%-21.0%
20218-11-00.0%-19.6%
202210-12-00.0%-13.2%
20238-8-00.0%-4.5%
202412-10-00.0%+4.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' struggles on zero days rest stem from their organizational approach to roster construction and bullpen management during their rebuilding years. Pittsburgh has consistently operated with one of MLB's lowest payrolls, resulting in thinner pitching depth and less experienced relievers who struggle with the physical demands of back-to-back games. Their starting rotation has frequently featured younger arms or veteran innings-eaters who lack the durability to maintain effectiveness without proper rest. The team's offensive philosophy compounds these issues. The Pirates have emphasized contact hitting and situational baseball rather than power, making them more dependent on stringing together multiple at-bats to generate runs. When fatigue sets in during consecutive games, this approach becomes significantly less effective against fresh pitching staffs. Their baserunning and defensive execution also deteriorate noticeably when players are operating on minimal recovery time. Smart bettors should target the Pirates as fade candidates when they're playing their second game in as many days, particularly when facing teams with deeper rosters or superior bullpens. This trend carries the most weight during summer stretches when heat and humidity amplify fatigue factors, and during crucial divisional series where every edge matters for their opponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as zero days rest?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone 118-120-0 against the spread (ATS) when playing on zero days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 49.6% ATS win rate over 238 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as zero days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates on zero days rest has not been profitable. The team has produced a -5.3% return on investment (ROI) in this situation, meaning bettors would lose approximately 5.3 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Pirates' 49.6% ATS win rate on zero days rest is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. While the sample shows they've been marginally worse than average, the difference is relatively small at just 0.4 percentage points below break-even.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.