Pittsburgh Pirates Large Underdog (+7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Pittsburgh Pirates hold a record of 176-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +81.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $151 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 15-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2015 | 11-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 19-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 15-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2018 | 15-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2019 | 15-1-0 | 0.0% | +79.0% |
| 2020 | 21-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 11-1-0 | 0.0% | +75.0% |
| 2022 | 21-1-0 | 0.0% | +82.2% |
| 2023 | 18-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 15-3-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Pittsburgh Pirates' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their organizational identity as scrappy underdogs who thrive when expectations are lowest. When facing significant point spreads, the Pirates often benefit from reduced pressure and the ability to play loose, aggressive baseball. Their young, developing roster tends to perform better in these scenarios because veterans aren't pressing to salvage games, allowing emerging talent to showcase their skills without the weight of expectations. Pittsburgh's roster construction also plays a crucial role in this trend. The team's emphasis on speed, defense, and opportunistic hitting creates a style that can exploit overconfident opponents. When heavily favored teams assume an easy victory, they sometimes approach games with less intensity, opening windows for the Pirates to capitalize through timely hitting and aggressive baserunning. The psychological element cannot be understated – Pittsburgh players have internalized their underdog status, using it as motivation rather than burden. This mentality translates into inspired performances when the betting market writes them off completely. This trend holds the most value when the Pirates face elite teams during divisional play, where familiarity breeds competitive games regardless of talent disparity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 176-9-0 ATS record as large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This translates to an exceptional 95.1% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as large underdogs has been highly profitable with an 81.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite their poor overall performance, they consistently cover large spreads.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 95.1% ATS rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for large underdogs. The Pirates' ability to keep games closer than expected makes them one of the most reliable large underdog bets in baseball.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.