Pittsburgh Pirates Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 60-78-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -17.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +17.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9-5-0 | 0.0% | +22.7% |
| 2015 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2016 | 6-5-0 | 0.0% | +4.1% |
| 2017 | 5-8-0 | 0.0% | -26.6% |
| 2018 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2019 | 5-7-0 | 0.0% | -20.4% |
| 2020 | 7-5-0 | 0.0% | +11.4% |
| 2021 | 5-10-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 6-7-0 | 0.0% | -11.9% |
| 2023 | 6-5-0 | 0.0% | +4.1% |
| 2024 | 7-12-0 | 0.0% | -29.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Pirates' struggles against division rivals at home stem from a fundamental psychological burden that has plagued the franchise through its recent rebuilding years. Playing in front of their own fans against familiar NL Central opponents creates heightened expectations that Pittsburgh simply hasn't had the roster depth to meet consistently. Division rivals know PNC Park intimately and have exploited the Pirates' tendency to rely too heavily on their home ballpark's unique dimensions, particularly the spacious foul territory and challenging wind patterns off the Allegheny River. Pittsburgh's front office approach during this period prioritized player development over immediate competitiveness, meaning they frequently trotted out inexperienced lineups against seasoned division foes who understood how to exploit young pitchers and hitters. The Pirates also struggled with roster continuity, often trading away key veterans mid-season, which disrupted team chemistry precisely when facing rivals who maintained more stable cores. The most actionable insight for bettors is recognizing that Pittsburgh performs worst when facing division opponents with winning records at home, as the pressure amplifies their fundamental talent deficiencies. This trend matters most during weekend series in the second half of the season, when playoff implications intensify and the Pirates' organizational focus shifts toward evaluation rather than winning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 60-78-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.5% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.
Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home favorites against division rivals has not been profitable. The team has generated a -17.0% ROI with a 43.5% ATS win rate, resulting in consistent losses for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the league average ATS win rate of approximately 50%. The Pirates' 43.5% ATS win rate in this situation represents underperformance of about 6.5 percentage points compared to expected results.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.