The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 13-47-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -58.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +58.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record13-47-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size60 games
ROI-58.6%
Units Won-35.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-6-00.0%-100.0%
20154-3-00.0%+9.1%
20161-5-00.0%-68.2%
20173-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-5-00.0%-68.2%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20200-8-00.0%-100.0%
20210-5-00.0%-100.0%
20220-5-00.0%-100.0%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20241-5-00.0%-68.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' struggles as home favorites on zero rest reflect a franchise caught between rebuilding phases and unrealistic market expectations. Pittsburgh's roster construction during this period featured aging veterans and unproven prospects, creating a volatile mix that couldn't handle the physical and mental demands of back-to-back games. When oddsmakers made them favorites at PNC Park, they were essentially betting on a team that lacked the depth and conditioning to maintain performance without adequate recovery time. The psychological burden compounds this issue significantly. Pirates players during these seasons often felt the weight of disappointing fan expectations, and playing as favorites amplified that pressure. Zero rest scenarios typically favor teams with superior bullpen depth and bench strength – luxuries the cost-conscious Pirates rarely possessed. Their relievers were frequently overworked, and position players lacked quality backup options, making fatigue a critical factor in close games. The home field advantage that typically justifies favorite status became meaningless when Pittsburgh couldn't execute fundamentals due to tired legs and foggy decision-making. Bettors should target Pirates opponents in these exact scenarios, particularly when the visiting team had a rest advantage. This trend carries the most weight during summer months when heat and humidity at PNC Park exacerbate fatigue issues.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an ATS record of 13-47-0 when playing as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 21.7% ATS win rate over 60 games.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. With an ROI of -58.6%, this represents one of the worst betting trends in baseball.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average. Most teams perform around 50% ATS, making Pittsburgh's 21.7% win rate in this situation exceptionally poor for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.