The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 213-251-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record213-251-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size465 games
ROI-12.4%
Units Won-57.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201421-19-00.0%+0.2%
201512-21-10.0%-30.6%
201620-24-00.0%-13.2%
201716-14-00.0%+1.8%
201820-20-00.0%-4.5%
201917-22-00.0%-16.8%
202024-21-00.0%+1.8%
202117-27-00.0%-26.2%
202226-20-00.0%+7.9%
202322-29-00.0%-17.6%
202418-34-00.0%-33.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' struggles at home stem from a fundamental disconnect between fan expectations and organizational reality at PNC Park. Pittsburgh's beautiful ballpark creates an atmosphere where casual fans expect competitive baseball, leading oddsmakers to occasionally overvalue the Pirates based on home field advantage that simply doesn't exist for a rebuilding franchise. The team's chronic inability to develop consistent offensive production gets magnified at home, where patient Pittsburgh crowds can turn restless when facing quality pitching. PNC Park's dimensions actually work against Pittsburgh's typical roster construction. The spacious foul territory and deep power alleys neutralize what little pop the Pirates generate, while visiting teams with better-constructed lineups can exploit the park's quirks more effectively. The organization's perpetual youth movement means home games often feature inexperienced players pressing to perform in front of family and friends, leading to mechanical breakdowns and poor plate discipline. The most actionable insight for bettors is targeting Pirates home games against teams with established veteran starting pitching, particularly in day games where Pittsburgh's young hitters historically struggle with timing adjustments. This trend carries the most weight during weekend series against divisional opponents, when local expectations peak and the talent gap becomes most apparent.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as home games?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an ATS record of 213-251-1 in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.9% win rate against the spread over 465 total home games.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as home games profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates in home games has not been profitable. With a -12.4% ROI over this 11-year period, bettors would have lost money consistently backing Pittsburgh at home against the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average of 50% ATS. The Pirates' 45.9% home ATS win rate ranks among the worst in MLB, making them one of the least reliable home teams to bet on during this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.