The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 15-96-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -74.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +74.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record15-96-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size111 games
ROI-74.2%
Units Won-82.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-7-00.0%-42.7%
20151-9-00.0%-80.9%
20160-13-00.0%-100.0%
20172-8-00.0%-61.8%
20181-17-00.0%-89.4%
20191-5-00.0%-68.2%
20202-10-00.0%-68.2%
20210-6-00.0%-100.0%
20222-8-00.0%-61.8%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20242-12-00.0%-72.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a fundamental organizational weakness that has plagued the franchise for over a decade. Pittsburgh operates with one of MLB's smallest payrolls, creating a roster construction problem where they rarely possess the depth needed to bounce back effectively on the road. When the Pirates lose at home and then travel as favorites, they're typically facing teams with comparable or inferior records, but the psychological burden of proving themselves worthy of favorite status while dealing with the sting of a recent defeat creates a perfect storm. The team's offensive inconsistency becomes magnified in these spots, as Pittsburgh historically relies on situational hitting and manufacturing runs rather than power. Road environments amplify these weaknesses, particularly when facing motivated underdogs who recognize an opportunity against a vulnerable favorite. The Pirates' bullpen depth issues also surface more prominently in these scenarios, as managers often exhaust their best relievers trying to salvage games they're expected to win. The actionable insight here is clear: fade Pittsburgh as road favorites after losses, especially when the line suggests a close game. This trend carries the most weight when the Pirates are small road favorites of -110 to -140, where the market hasn't fully adjusted to their psychological fragility in these specific situations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 15-96-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread just 13.5% of the time. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Pirates as away favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -74.2% ROI. This trend has consistently lost money for bettors across an 11-year sample size.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Pirates' 13.5% cover rate in this spot is among the worst situational trends for any MLB team.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.