The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 43-210-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -67.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +67.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record43-210-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size253 games
ROI-67.5%
Units Won-170.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-18-00.0%-52.3%
20153-21-00.0%-76.1%
20160-20-00.0%-100.0%
20176-16-00.0%-47.9%
20183-21-00.0%-76.1%
20193-15-00.0%-68.2%
20206-27-00.0%-65.3%
20213-18-00.0%-72.7%
20226-21-00.0%-57.6%
20234-9-00.0%-41.3%
20243-24-00.0%-78.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pirates' historically poor performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational reality. Pittsburgh has operated as a small-market franchise focused on player development rather than sustained competitiveness, making them inherently unsuited for the favorite role away from home. When oddsmakers install them as road favorites, it typically occurs against teams in similar rebuilding phases or during brief hot streaks that don't reflect underlying talent disparities. The psychological burden of being favored appears particularly challenging for Pirates players who are accustomed to playing with house money. Road environments amplify this pressure, as Pittsburgh lacks the veteran leadership and championship pedigree necessary to handle expectations confidently. Their organizational philosophy of developing young talent means lineups often feature inexperienced players who struggle with the mental aspect of being expected to win, especially in hostile environments. The franchise's consistent roster turnover creates additional instability when traveling, as players lack familiarity with each other and coaching systems remain in flux. This trend becomes most valuable when Pittsburgh appears as a road favorite during late-season meaningless games or against teams with significant injuries, where the market may overadjust based on surface-level matchups rather than deeper organizational realities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Pirates's ATS record as away favorite?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 43-210-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 0.0% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances in baseball over this timeframe.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -67.5% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 67.5 cents for every dollar wagered on Pittsburgh in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as MLB teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Pirates' 0.0% cover rate as away favorites represents an extreme statistical outlier and one of the worst betting trends in modern baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.